Bilateral relations between countries and the complexity of newspaper editorials

The archival measure of integrative complexity, developed by Suedfeld and Rank (1976), is one of several procedures for the systematic study of documentary evidence to infer various characteristics of the interactions between countries (e.g., Axelrod, 1976; Ertel, 1972; George, 1969; Hermann, 1980; Mehrabian, 1967; Winter, 1987). Integrative complexity is defined as the joint operation of two components of information processing: differentiation (the perception of 'The University of British Columbia. 601 0162-895X/92/1200-0601$06.50/1 ? 1992 International Society of Political Psychology

Suedfeld several dimensions in a stimulus situation or of several perspectives on the situation) and integration (the recognition of relations among differentiated dimensions or perspectives, e.g., as interacting, as capable of being integrated, or as being relevant to some overarching event or idea). Evidence of differentiation and integration in verbal (written or oral) statements can be reliably assessed by trained scorers (see Method). A large number of studies have shown level of complexity to vary with environmental and personal stress, political ideology, and social role, inter alia (Suedfeld, Tetlock, & Streufert, 1992). Most of these studies have used governmental documents or the pronouncements of officials as the data sources. Level of complexity is important because it indicates differences in decision-making strategies: for example, sever- al studies have confirmed the association between reduced complexity of governmental communications during international crises and imminent war (Suedfeld & Tetlock, 1977; Suedfeld, Tetlock, & Ramirez, 1977; Suedfeld & Bluck, 1988). Periods of international crisis are associated with reductions in complexity not only in official documents but also in such diverse materials as personal letters, editorials in a scientific journal, and presidential addresses to the American Psychological Association (Porter & Suedfeld, 1981; Suedfeld, 1981, 1985). These data may indicate a general state of rising tension within a society, which in turn may affect information processing and decision-making at both the private and public levels: for example, it may influence readiness for or against negotiated compromise as the solution to problems. The overwhelming majority of archival materials used in such studies have consisted of governmental communications, memoranda, policy papers, and the like, and the private or professional correspondence and speeches of various societal elites. Relatively little attention has been paid to the mass media, except as they reproduce the other kinds of materials. Systematic content analysis of media content has been used to study various aspects of national and international politics-e.g., to identify publications that served as disguised propaganda outlets for Nazi Germany, to monitor sequential changes in Comintern policy toward and away from cooperation with noncommunist countries and groups (Lasswell, Leites, & associates, 1949). Structural-i.e., complexity-analysis may also provide interesting data. The current study focuses on the association between international relations and the complexity of editorials in periodicals of broad readership and impact. Further, it looks at the concomitants of events that are more "normal" than international crises: that is, events that affect relations between pairs of countries positively or negatively but for the most part without carrying major risks such as war. Both communist bloc and Western publications were included to assess possible differences between the two types of system in this respect. Three major questions are addressed: 602

Bilateral Relations Between Countries and the Complexity of Newspaper Editorials 1. Will the complexity of newspaper editorials reflect lessening or increasing levels of international tension even when events do not reach the level of crisis but are of a more routine nature (such as trade agreements, diplomatic visits, U.N. votes, and the like)? Our hypothesis was that such changes would be found, showing the effects of "disruptive stress": i.e., changed complexity in times of increasing tension. 2. Will there be a difference between publications of communist and Western countries in this regard? One might expect so. In the former case, until very recently newspapers were instruments of the government and supported the government's current policies. While American and Canadian newspapers may be more or less subject to subtle governmental reinforcement (e.g., "leaks" of restricted information) or the lack of it, as well as needing to stay in step with public opinion, editorial philosophies are developed within the newspaper and may or may not be congruent with governmental views (cf. Charles, Shore, & Todd, 1979; Downing, 1988; Dreier, 1982). On the other hand, the effects of international tension on complexity have been shown to be quite pervasive in society-but these findings were based on times of crisis. We predicted that there would be a closer association between tension and editorial complexity in the communist than in the Western sources. 3. The third question involves the absolute level of complexity rather than changes in complexity. Because of previous findings, we predicted that Pravda will generally show lower complexity-more dogmatism, less flexibility and recognition of alternate points of view-than the Western publications. The relevant findings showed such differences between American and Soviet govern- mental statements (Suedfeld et al., 1977; Tetlock, 1988; Wallace & Suedfeld, 1988), although the current reformist leaders of the U.S.S.R. may break the pattern (Tetlock & Boettger, 1989). ............