SYSTEM RESEARCH ON GLOBAL GEOPOLITICS AND CONFLICT RESOLUTION.
    
     ABSTRACT Now the World becomes more and more complex in globalization processes. But fortunately globalization lead to creating new property of society- associative memory type behavior: Makarenko (1994), Levkov&Makarenko (1998). Application synergetic, informatic, system analysis allows to proposed new methodology. Our approach allows posing definition of civilization and society culture. Proposed approach allows making background for considering clash of civilizations by Hantington. Results of computer geopolitical prognoses are described. Some prognoses for post- USSR Europe are discussed. The prospects of global development prognoses and new World order with computer illustrations are considered including concept of sustainable development. KEYWORDS Civilization, associative memory, geopolitical prognoses, culture of society, computer models 1. INTRODUCTION
    The recent World became more and more complex object because of globalization process. This leads to difficulties in decision making on all decision levels from peoples to leaderships and governments. One of the questions of primary interest is future World order. There exist many subproblems in future geopolitics: one pole, many pole or distributed power, origin of new collective security organizations, the consequences of such actions as war in Persia galf, Cosovo crisis, choice of oil transportation way in Caspy region and many others. . Recently there are also a lot of questions posed by NATO enlargement.
    In such situation the past experience of presidents, diplomats, experts on foreign relations is insufficient. In case of such large object as recent society one of the useful tools for understanding their properties are system analysis. Recent system analysis gives global point of view on considered object as the whole. Current system analysis incorporates achievements of cybernetics, informatics, synergetic, philosophy, biology, sociology, politology and so on. System analysis gives also practical tools for investigations, modeling and improving operating of large social systems. Till now there are many applications of system analysis as to social problems as more particular to foreign relations. But many important and principal problems were unresolved.
    Fortunately globalization of recent society not only overcomplicate the society behavior. Our investigation led us to the conclusion that now society has new property - associative memory type behavior. The society can exist in small number of stable states with transition from one state to another in historical process [1-3]. The examples of such states of society are civilizations described by A.Toynby, C.Hantington or formations in Marxist's investigations. In our approach the civilizations are the stable state of global culture of society. In such case the global culture of society is understand as all-material and mental achievements of society.
    Geopolitical relations are the part of society. Now all countries involved in global international community. In this community all have relations. This leads to existing associative memory property also in system of international relations.
    Establishing such property allows us to develop the new methodology for considering as global as local geopolitical problems.
     2 PRINCIPLES OF GEOPOLITICAL MODELING
    As recognized the modeling is the part of decision support systems. There are many subjects for modeling now and in this report it is considered mainly the problems connected to geopolitics. There are some results and prospects of realization global models of entirely new type (developed since 1992 by A. Makarenko [1-3]), to the region of geopolitics. Implementations of computer programs to geopolitics were made in Dept. MMSA of IPSA of Ukraine. The models are of neuronet type and may have many consequences for traditional problems in diplomacy, politics, sociology and so on. There are some characteristic scales in geopolitical prognosis problems. Most global is the scale where the all countries in the World constitute complex system with many interconnections. The Europe is only the subregion of World community. Many subregions may be also in subregion Europe. Let us describe the global principles of geopolitical modeling. For more details see [4-6]. Each countries described or by one parameter - power of state (as analogies of R. Kline) or by vector of parameters (economic, political, military, demography and so on). Remark that the power of country is the projection of real power on the block power. So if the state is large but has a little influence on another states, than the power takes zero. The next elements of model are the connections between the states (the scalar value for scalar model or the vector of bounds in vector models). There are the two ways of evaluation of connections. On first way experts on foreign relations evaluate bounds. On second way there exists the strong mathematical formulas for bounds evaluation. The essential components of neuronet type models are learning procedure. In our case the learning images are some stable patterns in geopolitical relations in Europe. There are three more or less stable patterns conventionally marked as 1914, 1939, 1990 year situations (reconstructed from bounds and from the datum by Hand- Books on second World War, Encyclopedia Britannica, Big Soviet Encyclopedia, C.Bennet& R.Axelrod, R.Trubaychyk and so on and consideration of author). It is very important that the learning procedure implicitly take into account the notion of global culture of society as described in papers [1-3]. In particular all prehistory of foreign relations also present implicitly in model. ............